In a region where a fragile peace holds over three frozen conflicts,
the nations of the South Caucasus are buzzing with drones they use to
probe one another’s defenses and spy on disputed territories.
The
region is also host to strategic oil and gas pipelines and a tangled
web of alliances and precious resources that observers say threaten to
quickly escalate the border skirmishes and airspace violations to a
wider regional conflict triggered by Armenia and Azerbaijan that could
potentially pull in Israel, Russia and Iran.
To some extent, these countries are already being pulled towards conflict. Last September,A smooth and Glossy floor tile
not only looks bright and clean, Armenia shot down an Israeli-made
Azerbaijani drone over Nagorno-Karabakh and the government claims that
drones have been spotted ahead of recent incursions by Azerbaijani
troops into Armenian-held territory.
Richard Giragosian,
director of the Regional Studies Center in Yerevan, said in a briefing
that attacks this summer showed that Azerbaijan is eager to “play with
its new toys” and its forces showed “impressive tactical and operational
improvement.”
The International Crisis Group warned that as the
tit-for-tat incidents become more deadly, “there is a growing risk that
the increasing frontline tensions could lead to an accidental war.We
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With
this in mind, the UN and the Organization for Security and Co-operation
in Europe (OSCE) have long imposed a non-binding arms embargo on both
countries, and both are under a de facto arms ban from the United
States. But, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research
Institute (SIPRI), this has not stopped Israel and Russia from selling
to them.
After fighting a bloody war in the early 1990s over the
disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia and Azerbaijan have
been locked in a stalemate with an oft-violated ceasefire holding a
tenuous peace between them.
And drones are the latest addition
to the battlefield. In March, Azerbaijan signed a $1.6 billion arms deal
with Israel, which consisted largely of advanced drones and an air
defense system. Through this and other deals, Azerbaijan is currently
amassing a squadron of over 100 drones from all three of Israel’s top
defense manufacturers.
Armenia, meanwhile, employs only a small number of domestically produced models.
Intelligence
gathering is just one use for drones, which are also used to spot
targets for artillery, and, if armed, strike targets themselves.Dongpeng
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Armenian
and Azerbaijani forces routinely snipe and engage one another along the
front, each typically blaming the other for violating the ceasefire. At
least 60 people have been killed in ceasefire violations in the last
two years, and the Brussels-based International Crisis Group claimed in a
report published in February 2011 that the sporadic violence has
claimed hundreds of lives.
“Each (Armenia and Azerbaijan) is
apparently using the clashes and the threat of a new war to pressure its
opponent at the negotiations table, while also preparing for the
possibility of a full-scale conflict in the event of a complete
breakdown in the peace talks,” the report said.
Alexander
Iskandaryan, director of the Caucasus Institute in the Armenian capital,
Yerevan, said that the arms buildup on both sides makes the situation
more dangerous but also said that the clashes are calculated actions,
with higher death tolls becoming a negotiating tactic.
“This
isn’t Somalia or Afghanistan. These aren’t independent units. The
Armenian, Azerbaijani and Karabakh armed forces have a rigid chain of
command so it’s not a question of a sergeant or a lieutenant randomly
giving the order to open fire. These are absolutely synchronized
political attacks,” Iskandaryan said.
The deadliest recent
uptick in violence along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border and the line of
contact around Karabakh came in early June as US Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton was on a visit to the region.Shop for high quality
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products on Dhgate. While death tolls varied, at least two dozen
soldiers were killed or wounded in a series of shootouts along the
front.
The year before, at least four Armenian soldiers were
killed in an alleged border incursion by Azerbaijani troops one day
after a peace summit between the Armenian, Azerbaijani and Russian
presidents in St. Petersburg, Russia.
“No one slept for two or
three days [during the June skirmishes],” said Grush Agbaryan, the mayor
of the border village of Voskepar for a total of 27 years off and on
over the past three decades. “Everyone is now saying that the war is
coming. We know that it could start at any moment.Carlo Gavazzi offers a
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Azerbaijan
refused to issue accreditation to GlobalPost’s correspondent to enter
the country to report on the shootings and Azerbaijan’s military
modernization.
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